Foreign currency

Remittances out-earn gold, and the two official counts differ by US$1.06bn

Ergaan maallaqaa warqee caala; lakkoofsonni lamaan doolaara biiliyoona 1.06'n garaagara

Posted 10 Tikimt 2019 E.C. · 08:00 EAT (2:00 Ethiopian time) · Published by Ensight (Mo Creatives)

The National Bank’s figure, published by the Ethiopian Diaspora Service, puts remittances at US$8.2 billion for the year to 7 July, more than gold at US$5.65 billion and well over twice coffee at US$3 billion. IFAD counted US$7.14 billion of formally recorded remittances on a calendar basis. The two cover different periods and need not match, but a gap of US$1.06 billion in the largest source of foreign currency is too large to leave unexplained, with reserves at 2.1 months of import cover.

The claim

Remittances are Ethiopia’s largest single source of foreign currency, larger than any export.

The figure that tests it

On the National Bank’s count, published by the Ethiopian Diaspora Service, remittances were US$8.2 billion in the year to 7 July, up from US$7.1 billion (two remittance figures). In the same year gold exports earned US$5.65 billion and coffee US$3 billion. On that count the claim holds by a wide margin: money sent home earned US$2.55 billion more than gold.

Six days later IFAD recorded US$7.14 billion of formally recorded remittances on a calendar basis, about 5% of GDP. That still beats gold. The claim survives either figure.

Why the two counts differ

They measure different years: the National Bank’s runs to 7 July, IFAD’s to the end of December. They may also draw the line differently around what counts as a formal transfer. Neither body has published a reconciliation, so the US$1.06 billion between them, an Ensight calculation, is unexplained rather than wrong.

What it means, and for whom

For anyone reading the reserve position, the gap matters. Reserves cover 2.1 months of imports, and US$1.06 billion is nearly a fifth of the gold year. The foreign exchange auction gives another signal: at the twenty-eighth auction the National Bank offered US$125 million and sold US$120 million, its first undersubscription, which analysts put down to short birr rather than weak dollar demand (the auction).

What would change the view

A monthly remittance series from the National Bank with its definitions, or a joint note with IFAD explaining the gap. If formal remittances on a fiscal-year basis fell back towards the IFAD figure, gold would be within reach of the top place.

Source: Ensight, from National Bank, Diaspora Service and IFAD figures

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